tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:feed 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z Chokepoint Data tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/market-stopped-pricing-peace 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

Computed analysis piece on chokepointdata.com.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/closure-declarations 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

Computed analysis piece on chokepointdata.com.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/fed-day-control-group 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

Computed analysis piece on chokepointdata.com.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:analysis/prediction-market-scoreboard 2026-08-16T12:00:00Z

Computed analysis piece on chokepointdata.com.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-08-14-adnoc-tankers-hit-by-drones-disclosed-hormuz-transit-near-st 2026-08-14T12:00:00Z

UKMTO and ADNOC disclosed that the ADNOC-operated tankers Navig8 Messi (Singapore-flagged) and Tarif (Liberia-flagged) were struck by drones on the evening of 13 August during strait transits, sustaining minor damage with all crew safe; the UAE blamed Iran and called the attacks a flagrant violation. Transit through the strait was reported near a standstill on Friday 14 August as the US said it could maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and warned of stepped-up economic pressure.

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-08-05-us-iran-and-oman-reported-close-to-deal-to-reopen-hormuz 2026-08-05T12:00:00Z

Axios reported the US was nearing an Oman-mediated deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Trump said an agreement could come within days and Treasury Secretary Bessent called a deal imminent. Iran said it and Oman had agreed the geographic coordinates of a shipping arrangement routing inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters under a 60-day framework. [Brent next close +0.2% | +7d +7.9% | transits 4.4 -> 3.8/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-26-us-and-iran-pause-strikes-for-second-straight-day 2026-07-26T12:00:00Z

After 13 consecutive nights of US airstrikes, the Pentagon halted attacks late on 24 July, with no strikes reported on 25-26 July; a senior Iranian official said Iran would hold fire as long as the US pause continued, and Trump said the US stopped at Iran's request while warning strikes would resume without a new deal. No formal ceasefire was signed; the pause solidified over a weekend, before the next market open. [Brent next close -8.5% | +7d -3.3% | transits 2.6 -> 4.0/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-22-houthis-strike-two-saudi-tankers-in-red-sea-opening-second-f 2026-07-22T12:00:00Z

Yemen's Houthis announced on Wednesday 22 July that they had attacked the Saudi oil tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, the first strikes since the group declared a naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping on 20 July. Saudi state media confirmed a fire at the bow of the Encelia with all crew safe; the reported attack on the Bahri VLCC Layla was not independently confirmed. The next day, President Trump said the US would hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks. [Brent next close +0.3% | +7d -2.0% | transits 4.1 -> 2.6/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-14-us-naval-blockade-of-all-iranian-ports-takes-effect 2026-07-14T20:00:00Z

The US naval blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas took effect at 20:00 UTC on 14 July (4pm ET; midnight 15 July Gulf time), interdicting all vessels bound for or departing Iranian ports while permitting neutral transit of the strait to non-Iranian destinations. CENTCOM had announced the blockade a day earlier, on 13 July. More than 20 US warships were reported operating in the region to enforce it. [Brent next close +2.5% | +7d +15.0% | transits 8.9 -> 4.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-12-iran-declares-strait-of-hormuz-closed-until-further-notice 2026-07-12T12:00:00Z

Hours after the IRGC struck the container ship GFS Galaxy (22:40 UTC on 11 July; engine-room fire, crew abandoned ship, one crew member missing and later confirmed dead), Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, its first formal closure declaration of the conflict. US wire datelines (Bloomberg, Axios) read 11 July (US evening); in UTC the declaration came around or shortly after midnight into 12 July. Either way it landed on a weekend, after markets had closed for the week. [Brent next close +9.8% | +7d +14.4% | transits 13.6 -> 4.7/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-08-trump-declares-ceasefire-with-iran-over-new-wave-of-us-strik 2026-07-08T12:00:00Z

At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump declared the June ceasefire with Iran over, citing the strait ship attacks, and the US military carried out a second wave of strikes on 90 Iranian military targets along the coastline, per CENTCOM. Air-defence sirens sounded in Bahrain and Kuwait as incoming Iranian missiles and drones were engaged; broader Iranian strikes on US bases in the Gulf followed on 9 July. [Brent next close +6.6% | +7d +15.7% | transits 22.4 -> 6.1/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-07-07-iran-strikes-three-commercial-ships-in-hormuz-qatari-lng-tan 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z

Iranian missiles struck three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz between the night of 6 July and the morning of 7 July, the first major breach of the interim truce. The Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat suffered a port-side engine-room fire and was evacuated, and a Saudi supertanker believed to be the Wedyan was also hit; two vessels sustained significant damage with no casualties, and Qatar publicly blamed Iran. [Brent next close +3.2% | +7d +20.3% | transits 21.0 -> 8.9/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-06-20-iran-s-military-declares-hormuz-closed-again-citing-israeli- 2026-06-20T12:00:00Z

Iran's IRGC-led military command declared the strait closed to all vessel traffic, citing continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as a 'blatant breach' of the MOU; Iran's foreign ministry contradicted the declaration within hours, saying shipping was operating normally, while US officials said transits were continuing via the southern route and analysts assessed the move as strategic messaging rather than an operational closure. Declaration came on a Saturday, with the first US trading response on Monday June 22. [Brent next close -4.9% | +7d -12.8% | transits 6.7 -> 23.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-06-17-trump-and-pezeshkian-sign-islamabad-memorandum-ending-war-an 2026-06-17T12:00:00Z

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was signed electronically by Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian, extending the ceasefire by 60 days, committing the US to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, providing for a gradual toll-free reopening of the strait with a future Iran-Oman management regime, and setting a 60-day timeline for nuclear talks. [Brent next close -0.2% | +7d -10.4% | transits 2.4 -> 12.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-06-14-us-and-iran-reach-framework-deal-to-end-war-and-reopen-hormu 2026-06-14T12:00:00Z

A framework agreement to end the fighting was announced by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, with Trump posting that the deal was 'now complete' and authorizing 'the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz' and 'immediate removal' of the naval blockade; Iran said implementation would await formal signing and a 60-day nuclear negotiation window was set. Announced on a Sunday with US markets closed. [Brent next close -4.8% | +7d -9.2% | transits 2.4 -> 10.0/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-06-11-iran-s-military-orders-complete-closure-of-the-strait-of-hor 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z

Iran's military ordered the complete closure of the strait early on Thursday June 11 in response to several days of US strikes, including reported explosions in Bandar Abbas and on Qeshm Island that CENTCOM called a proportional response to attacks on US forces. The order ended a period in which Iran had selectively allowed some ships to pass, reportedly for tolls as high as $2m per ship. [Brent next close -3.0% | +7d -17.1% | transits 2.7 -> 3.1/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-05-29-trump-says-us-blockade-of-hormuz-will-now-be-lifted-as-deal- 2026-05-29T12:00:00Z

Trump announced via social media that the US naval blockade 'will now be lifted' and that ships caught in the strait could begin 'heading home,' conditioning the move on Iran agreeing never to obtain a nuclear weapon and allowing safe passage of marine traffic; no agreement had yet been signed. [Brent next close -2.7% | +7d +1.9% | transits 2.9 -> 3.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-05-05-trump-pauses-project-freedom-citing-great-progress-toward-ir 2026-05-05T12:00:00Z

One day after the operation began, Trump announced on Tuesday May 5 that Project Freedom would be paused for a short period to see whether a 'Complete and Final Agreement' with Iran could be finalized, saying the decision was made partly at the request of Pakistan and other countries; the blockade of Iranian ports remained in place. [Brent next close -3.2% | +7d -5.8% | transits 5.0 -> 1.7/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-05-03-trump-announces-operation-project-freedom-to-reopen-hormuz-t 2026-05-03T12:00:00Z

Trump announced on Truth Social on the evening of Sunday May 3 (US time) that a US-led operation would begin Monday morning to move commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, backed by guided-missile destroyers, over 100 aircraft and roughly 15,000 personnel. Announcement broke outside US market hours on a Sunday evening. [Brent next close -3.2% | +7d -12.5% | transits 4.1 -> 1.3/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-04-18-iran-re-closes-strait-of-hormuz-fires-on-merchant-ships 2026-04-18T12:00:00Z

Iran's military announced it had closed the strait again, citing the continued US blockade, with the IRGC navy saying it would stay closed until the blockade was lifted and warning approaching vessels would be targeted. Ships were fired on the same day, including the VLCC Sanmar Herald (attacked by two Iranian gunboats despite clearance) and two India-flagged vessels forced to turn back. [Brent next close +4.8% | +7d +13.4% | transits 6.4 -> 5.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-04-17-iran-declares-strait-completely-open-contradicted-same-day 2026-04-17T12:00:00Z

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared passage through the Strait of Hormuz completely open for all commercial vessels after a US-mediated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, but Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf contradicted him the same day, saying the strait would not remain open while the US blockade continued. Only a handful of vessels transited in the following days. [Brent next close -15.4% | +7d -4.1% | transits 5.7 -> 5.9/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-04-12-islamabad-talks-collapse-us-announces-blockade-of-iranian-po 2026-04-12T12:00:00Z

US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad (from April 11) ended without agreement, with Vice President Vance leaving Pakistan saying talks had not led to an agreement. CENTCOM announced a blockade of Iranian ports, applying to vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports, beginning Monday April 13. [Brent next close +3.5% | +7d -17.2% | transits 4.4 -> 8.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-04-08-us-and-iran-agree-two-week-ceasefire-tied-to-reopening-hormu 2026-04-08T12:00:00Z

After 39 days of war, Trump announced a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire with Iran contingent on the 'COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz', agreed hours before his 8 pm ET April 7 deadline (00:00 UTC April 8) with US bombers reportedly airborne. Safe passage was to be coordinated with Iran's armed forces, and delegations were to meet in Islamabad. [Brent next close -11.6% | +7d -16.8% | transits 4.6 -> 5.7/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-03-11-iea-agrees-record-400-million-barrel-emergency-reserve-relea 2026-03-11T12:00:00Z

IEA member countries agreed to release an unprecedented 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest release in the agency's history, with the US contributing 172 million barrels from the SPR. The action responded to the halt of cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz. [Brent next close +1.3% | +7d +31.4% | transits 1.3 -> 1.7/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-02-28-us-and-israel-launch-operation-epic-fury-airstrikes-khamenei 2026-02-28T12:00:00Z

The United States (Operation Epic Fury) and Israel (Operation Roaring Lion) began coordinated air campaigns against Iranian military, nuclear and leadership targets; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and on US bases in Gulf states. [Brent next close +8.3% | +7d +34.2% | transits 83.6 -> 11.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-02-28-irgc-declares-strait-of-hormuz-closed-to-commercial-shipping 2026-02-28T12:00:00Z

Hours after the strikes began, the IRGC transmitted VHF warnings that 'no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz', beginning the closure. The UK Royal Navy noted the declaration was not legally binding but that safety could not be guaranteed, and several ships stayed in port or turned back. [Brent next close +8.3% | +7d +34.2% | transits 83.6 -> 11.4/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2026-02-17-iran-briefly-closes-parts-of-strait-of-hormuz-during-irgc-dr 2026-02-17T12:00:00Z

Iran said parts of the Strait of Hormuz were shut to traffic for several hours on Tuesday February 17 during the IRGC Navy's live-fire 'Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz' exercise, which began February 16, with IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri saying his force was ready to close the strait if ordered - a demonstration of Iran's ability to disrupt the waterway. The partial closure coincided with the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva the same day. [Brent next close -1.5% | +7d +0.6% | transits 71.1 -> 87.1/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2025-06-23-trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-ending-the-twelve-day- 2025-06-23T22:02:00Z

President Trump announced at 6:02 p.m. EDT on June 23 (22:02 UTC, after the US equity close) that Israel and Iran had agreed to a phased ceasefire, which took effect June 24 and, despite initial violations that day, held into 2026. The ceasefire was mediated by the US and Qatar. [Brent next close -5.6% | +7d -13.4% | transits 78.6 -> 74.9/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2025-06-21-us-strikes-fordow-natanz-and-isfahan-operation-midnight-hamm 2025-06-21T23:50:00Z

The United States struck Iran's three main nuclear sites with B-2-delivered GBU-57 bunker-busters and submarine-launched Tomahawks; President Trump announced the strikes at about 7:50 p.m. EDT Saturday (23:50 UTC June 21), with bombs on target roughly an hour earlier. Widely datelined June 22 because the strikes occurred overnight Iran local time; markets were closed for the weekend, with the first trading reaction at the Sunday evening futures open. [Brent next close -5.6% | +7d -11.9% | transits 84.7 -> 71.0/day]

tag:chokepointdata.com,2026:event/2025-06-13-israel-launches-operation-rising-lion-strikes-across-iran 2025-06-13T12:00:00Z

Israel launched surprise air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (including Natanz), missile sites and military leadership, opening what became the Twelve-Day War; Iran responded with drone and missile salvos within hours. Strikes began around 03:00-03:30 local time on June 13, i.e. news broke late Thursday evening June 12 US Eastern time, after the US equity close. [Brent next close +7.3% | +7d +11.1% | transits 84.7 -> 82.4/day]