5 declarations; the first and last both ~99th-percentile jumps.
Iran declared the strait closed 5 times. The reaction did not decay with repetition — the 1st (2026-02-28) and the 5th (2026-07-12) declarations both produced ~99th-percentile jumps (+8.3% and +9.8%). But it wasn't uniform either: 2 middle declarations landed inside active peace-deal windows and printed negative — during those stretches Brent was falling on deal optimism, and a re-closure read as confirmation of the collapse already priced in. What the market responds to is the regime it's in, not the count of declarations.
| Date | Brent next close | vs pre-crisis days | Brent +7d | Confounds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st closure declaration | 2026-02-28 | +8.3% | bigger than 98.6% | +34.2% | 1 † |
| 2nd (re-closure) | 2026-04-18 | +4.8% | bigger than 94.3% | +13.4% | 2 † |
| 3rd (complete-closure order) | 2026-06-11 | -3.0% | bigger than 83.5% | -17.1% | 2 † |
| 4th (re-closure) | 2026-06-20 | -4.9% | bigger than 94.7% | -12.8% | 2 † |
| 5th (re-closure) | 2026-07-12 | +9.8% | bigger than 98.9% | +14.4% | 3 † |
† Attribution caveat: 20 of 26 major events have another major event inside their ±7-day window, so 7-day reactions are not attributable to a single event. Percentiles rank each move's size against 1796 pre-crisis trading days (2019-01-01 to 2026-01-31 — a window that itself contains COVID, Ukraine, and the June 2025 war).
Computed, not asserted — every number here is derived from public data: official EIA Brent closes via FRED, IMF PortWatch transit counts, Polymarket and Kalshi odds, and source-linked curated events. Method and caveats · Atom feed · llms.txt