60 scheduled FOMC days: median ±1.36% vs ±1.28% on ordinary days.
A fair objection to any event study: maybe oil just moves a lot, and we're pinning stories on noise. So here is a benchmark using the most-watched macro announcement there is. Across 60 scheduled FOMC statement days since 2019, Brent's median next-close move was ±1.36% — versus ±1.28% on an ordinary trading day. For oil, a Fed day is barely distinguishable from any other day. The major crisis events on the timeline average ±5.05%, several times either figure — this is a supply story, not a macro-policy story. (The 2020 emergency Fed actions are excluded: they landed on crisis days by construction, which would credit the COVID oil crash to the Fed.)
Computed, not asserted — every number here is derived from public data: official EIA Brent closes via FRED, IMF PortWatch transit counts, Polymarket and Kalshi odds, and source-linked curated events. Method and caveats · Atom feed · llms.txt