Each successive deal moved oil less: -11.6% → -0.2% by the signed memorandum.
Each successive "deal" moved oil less. The first ceasefire agreement (2026-04-08) moved Brent -11.6% by the next close — a bigger one-day move than 99.1% of all pre-crisis trading days since 2019. The signed memorandum 10 weeks later (2026-06-17) moved it -0.2% — an ordinary day. Anticipation explains part of it (earlier headlines absorb the move); the collapse of the first two deals explains the rest.
| Date | Brent next close | vs pre-crisis days | Brent +7d | Confounds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st deal (two-week ceasefire) | 2026-04-08 | -11.6% | bigger than 99.1% | -16.8% | 1 † |
| 2nd deal (Islamabad MoU) | 2026-06-17 | -0.2% | bigger than 8.5% | -10.4% | 3 † |
| 3rd deal (Oman talks) | 2026-08-05 | +0.2% | bigger than 8.5% | +7.9% | none |
† Attribution caveat: 20 of 26 major events have another major event inside their ±7-day window, so 7-day reactions are not attributable to a single event. Percentiles rank each move's size against 1796 pre-crisis trading days (2019-01-01 to 2026-01-31 — a window that itself contains COVID, Ukraine, and the June 2025 war).
Computed, not asserted — every number here is derived from public data: official EIA Brent closes via FRED, IMF PortWatch transit counts, Polymarket and Kalshi odds, and source-linked curated events. Method and caveats · Atom feed · llms.txt
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/market-stopped-pricing-peace/