Mean opening odds 44%; lifetime Brier 0.077 vs 0 for always-No.
Every resolved Hormuz market, scored against what happened. Brier = mean squared error of the daily YES price (0 is perfect). Survivorship caveat: only markets that have already resolved are scorable, and while the strait stays closed a dated reopen market can only die NO — the hindsight benchmark is unbeatable by construction, which is part of the point.
| Market | Life | Open | Peak | Final | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes Hormuz in 2025 Polymarket | 01-23 → 01-01 | 14% | 52% | 0.1% | NO | 0.023 |
| Iran closes Hormuz by 2027 Polymarket | 11-05 → 03-14 | 20% | 100% | 100.0% | YES | 0.575 |
| Iran closes Hormuz 7+ days before 2027 Kalshi | 01-09 → 03-11 | 33% | 99% | 99.0% | YES | 0.415 |
| Reopen Apr 30 Polymarket | 03-09 → 05-12 | 69% | 69% | 0.1% | NO | 0.060 |
| Reopen before Jul 2026 Kalshi | 03-18 → 07-08 | 65% | 80% | 0.1% | NO | 0.178 |
| Reopen end of May Polymarket | 03-31 → 06-02 | 65% | 77% | 0.1% | NO | 0.123 |
| Reopen end of June Polymarket | 04-14 → 07-07 | 70% | 88% | 0.1% | NO | 0.159 |
| Reopen before Aug 2026 Kalshi | 04-14 → 08-05 | 64% | 81% | 1.0% | NO | 0.168 |
| Reopen May 15 Polymarket | 04-22 → 05-19 | 19% | 19% | 0.1% | NO | 0.009 |
| Reopen Jul 31 Polymarket | 05-11 → 08-04 | 53% | 76% | 0.1% | NO | 0.138 |
| Reopen before Jun 15 2026 Kalshi | 05-16 → 06-17 | 14% | 36% | 1.0% | NO | 0.009 |
| Reopen Jun 15 Polymarket | 05-26 → 06-23 | 16% | 16% | 0.1% | NO | 0.003 |
| Reopen Jul 15 Polymarket | 06-13 → 07-21 | 43% | 46% | 0.1% | NO | 0.043 |
| Reopen before Jul 15 2026 Kalshi | 06-16 → 07-22 | 37% | 37% | 1.0% | NO | 0.025 |
| Reopen Jul 7 Polymarket | 06-25 → 07-17 | 13% | 19% | 0.1% | NO | 0.003 |
Computed, not asserted — every number here is derived from public data: official EIA Brent closes via FRED, IMF PortWatch transit counts, Polymarket and Kalshi odds, and source-linked curated events. Method and caveats · Atom feed · llms.txt
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/prediction-market-scoreboard/