Chokepoint Data · the Strait of Hormuz crisis

Trump declares ceasefire with Iran over; new wave of US strikes

2026-07-08 · diplomatic · major

At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump declared the June ceasefire with Iran over, citing the strait ship attacks, and the US military carried out a second wave of strikes on 90 Iranian military targets along the coastline, per CENTCOM. Air-defence sirens sounded in Bahrain and Kuwait as incoming Iranian missiles and drones were engaged; broader Iranian strikes on US bases in the Gulf followed on 9 July.

Brent next close +6.6% · +7 days +15.7% · transits 22.4 → 6.1 per day · outsized reaction — bigger than 97.2% of pre-crisis days

Attribution caveat: 3 other major event(s) sit inside this one's ±7-day window (2026-07-07 Iran strikes three commercial ships in Hormuz; Qatari LNG tanker ablaze; 2026-07-12 Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice; 2026-07-14 US naval blockade of all Iranian ports takes effect), so the reaction is not cleanly separable.

Sources

The Washington Post · NPR · Al Jazeera

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Computed, not asserted — every number here is derived from public data: official EIA Brent closes via FRED, IMF PortWatch transit counts, Polymarket and Kalshi odds, and source-linked curated events. Method and caveats · Atom feed · llms.txt

https://chokepointdata.com/event/2026-07-08-trump-declares-ceasefire-with-iran-over-new-wave-of-us-strik/