Chokepoint Data · the Strait of Hormuz crisis

US launches strike wave on southern Iran; Iran fires at US bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq

2026-09-01 · military · major

CENTCOM said US forces began striking IRGC targets in southern Iran around midday US Eastern time, including air defence, radar, maritime, mine-laying and communications sites, citing attempted IRGC attacks on shipping and US troops; Trump called the strikes 'large and powerful'. Iranian officials said the strikes killed at least 11 people, including guests at a wedding in Kuhestak, and the US denied targeting civilians. Iran fired missiles and drones at US sites in Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq, and Jordan said it intercepted 10 of 13 missiles; it was the heaviest US-Iran exchange since late July and followed weeks in which Washington had relied on sanctions.

Brent next close +7.0% · +7 days +18.2% · transits 4.3 → 3.4 per day · outsized reaction — bigger than 97.7% of pre-crisis days

Attribution caveat: 2 other major event(s) sit inside this one's ±7-day window (2026-08-28 CENTCOM declares Hormuz international shipping lanes free of Iranian mines; 2026-09-08 Houthi strikes on southern Saudi cities set oil sites ablaze; Riyadh says 73 hurt), so the reaction is not cleanly separable.

Sources

Al Jazeera · Deseret News · BBC

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Computed, not asserted — every number here is derived from public data: official EIA Brent closes via FRED, IMF PortWatch transit counts, Polymarket and Kalshi odds, and source-linked curated events. Method and caveats · Atom feed · llms.txt

https://chokepointdata.com/event/2026-09-01-us-launches-strike-wave-on-southern-iran-iran-fires-at-us-ba/